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China’s Demographic Challenges: Complex Global Implications

Peter Zeihan, a geopolitical researcher and author, predicts a global financial disaster in China. Zeihan claims that China’s fast urbanisation and one-child policy have caused a demographic catastrophe, leaving the elderly without enough young people. He predicts a worldwide financial disaster from a Chinese financial collapse.

Zeihan claims China urbanised rapidly in 1980. People moved from subsistence fields to high-rise condominiums in one generation. In one generation, the birth rate plummeted from seven to one. The one-child policy, which followed, exacerbated the demographic issue. After 40 years, there are not enough young individuals to produce children.

Zeihan says this would always be a two-generation experience for the People’s Republic of China. Still, it occurred so rapidly that no economic theory has been produced to describe how the Chinese economy will run in 2030. He also notes that immigrants will choose the US due to its greater population and better upward mobility. He also says that the fact that China is known for being racist and that its government doesn’t care about people’s rights would stop people from moving there.

With 330 million people, the US requires 2–4 million immigrants annually to fill its younger age groups. The US is much below that amount. Zeihan claims this will haunt the US for decades. The US is a settler society; hence, no one is from there. Thus, the US is politically capable of long-term mass immigration.

China’s demographic issue will leave the elderly population without enough young people. The Chinese economy will struggle due to a labour shortage. Due to fewer employees supporting more people, social security will be more taxed.

Relaxing the one-child restriction may be too late for the Chinese authorities. The demographic catastrophe is irreparable. The Chinese government may need to boost immigration and family size to solve the issue.

The Chinese financial crisis will impact the globe. A crisis in China, the world’s second-largest economy, will affect the global economy. Australia and Canada, which export considerably to China, will also be involved.

Peter Zeihan’s views are debatable and not widely acknowledged. China’s economy has been steadily growing while its population has been changing, such as raising the retirement age and encouraging people to have more children. However, China’s ageing population and dropping birth rate will affect its economy and society.

The Chinese government is also reforming the economy to make it less export-oriented. The goal of the Belt and Road Initiative and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank is to give China more economic power worldwide. China’s demographic issues and sustainable economic growth are addressed through these achievements.

Furthermore, the population of the United States is ageing, with fewer people working. After the current government put strict immigration policies that hurt economic growth and made it harder for immigrants to fit in, the US now has problems with its immigration policies.

China’s demographic concerns and their possible economic implications are substantial and complicated. The warning from Peter Zeihan should be considered, but so should other points of view and what the Chinese government is doing to solve these problems. China’s financial crisis will affect the global economy, but it’s not as bad as it seems.

 

 

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