In 2021, the United States and China witnessed their rivalry reach unprecedented heights as both countries pursued strategies of increasing distrust and animosity in trade, defence, and diplomacy.
This pattern appears to be set to continue through 2022. Democrats and Republicans in the United States, who are severely split ahead of the key mid-term elections, can agree on one thing: there is no tolerance for being soft on China.
President Xi Jinping of China is prepared to consolidate his control at the helm of the country during the Communist Party’s annual meeting in October, with the Communist Party solidly behind his hardline policies.
The 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing are off to a difficult start. The United States has already stated that no government officials will be attending the games, and the United Kingdom and Australia have joined Washington’s diplomatic boycott. China retaliated by threatening unspecified “consequences” for the decision.
As February approaches, tensions are certain to rise, as the US uses the games and the boycott to draw attention to China’s treatment of the Uyghur Muslim minority in the Xinjiang area.
Beijing’s pressure on Hong Kong’s civil freedoms will continue into 2022, as more pro-democracy activists are imprisoned under a national security statute enacted in 2020.
“I anticipate that the conflict between China and the United States will persist in 2022, notably in the fields of human rights, geopolitics, and security,” said Wu Qiang, a Beijing-based independent political commentator.
“This is a situation that both China’s and America’s leaders are pleased to see and expect.” I don’t think they’ll take any effective efforts to de-escalate the situation, but they’ll keep it under control,” he continued.
As Beijing gradually erodes Hong Kong’s special autonomy, Taiwan watches nervously as Chinese jets have flown hundreds of missions inside its defensive identification zone in recent months.
In 2021, the US enraged Beijing by sending unofficial legislative delegations to Taiwan and expressing support for Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-government. wen’s
Any discussion of Taiwanese independence is frowned upon by China. Beijing is adopting a policy of Taiwan’s inevitable “reunion” with the mainland under Xi. In 2022, China is likely to continue to oppose attempts by Taiwan to gain diplomatic recognition, as well as Taipei’s aspirations to join international organisations.
As tensions in the Taiwan Strait persist, the most hazardous potential spark for armed confrontation between the US and China is considered as a Chinese military invasion. The Communist Party, on the other hand, is more likely to prefer stability than sabre-rattling as it prepares for its big event.
“The chance of a PRC attack on Taiwan before the 20th Party Congress in the fall of 2022 is quite low,” said Bonnie Glaser, director of the German Marshall Fund of the United States’ Asia Program.
“Xi Jinping is unlikely to take a gamble that puts his third five-year tenure in power in jeopardy,” Glaser told DW.
Overall, the US and its allies will continue to conduct “freedom of navigation” naval drills in international waters claimed by Beijing in the South China Sea. China is quietly but steadily building its navy to protect these interests, although neither side wants a naval clash in the waterways.
Moving forward, cybersecurity will be a major concern, affecting both economic and strategic strategies. The United States accused China of orchestrating significant data hacking in 2021. Washington has also been a vocal opponent of China’s global rollout of next-generation communications technologies, particularly 5G.
The United States’ effort to isolate Chinese technology from the rest of the world is expected to continue in 2022, with Washington refusing to relent in making it harder for Chinese companies to obtain vital US-made gear.
“The United States is just getting started on tightening technology transfer restrictions to China, and more actions will be done in 2022,” Glaser added.
The US Department of Defense is expected to address regulatory loopholes in 2022, such as those that allowed Chinese semiconductor firm SMIC to buy important US technology, and more Chinese entities will likely be added to the US Commerce Department’s blacklist, according to Glaser.
Export curbs and the screening of outbound foreign direct investment to China are also being discussed with US allies, she said.
The Communist Party’s harsh repression of the country’s business leaders, particularly in the technology sector, is also cause for concern. In 2022, further regulatory pressure from both the US and China on foreign investment in Chinese enterprises is likely to put global investors on the fence.
In 2022, China’s economic growth is predicted to decelerate, with some predictions estimating that growth will be as low as 5% next year. According to some observers, this might present Beijing with an incentive to collaborate with the US on lowering Trump-era trade barriers.
Biden and Xi held a teleconference in November during which they both promised to handle competition in the future. However, analysts are pessimistic that the two countries will be able to work together to address their disputes amicably.
“I believe that the lessening of economic and trade tensions between China and the United States is only transitory,” Shen Ling, an economist at the East China University of Science and Technology, said.
“As the balance of economic power between the two countries shifts, China is now closer to the US in terms of economic strength than it has ever been.” As a result, rather than cooperating, the bilateral relationship will be more competitive.”
Both sides are increasingly embroiled in an existential struggle to establish which form of governance is preferable. It’s state-controlled capitalism and the “rise of the East” for China as a growing force.
“Due to China’s 20th Party Congress and the US mid-term elections in 2022, domestic politics will have a significant impact on both US and Chinese policies.” As a result, I’m not hopeful about making major progress on any topic,” Glaser added. “However, if it is in both countries’ best interests to reach an agreement, that remains a possibility.”
